Quick answer: the tourism-arrivals argument for Phuket rental yields is made everywhere and is almost never checkable. Arrival totals, occupancy by beach and average daily rates are quoted with a decimal point and without a link to the release they came from. This page does the one thing that can be done from here: it tests the supply claim the argument rests on against MORE Group’s own price records, and that claim turns out to be inverted.
What this page will not tell you
It will not give you an arrivals figure, a beach-by-beach occupancy table or an average daily rate.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand and the Ministry of Tourism and Sports do publish arrival statistics, and they are the place to get them: a number taken from a primary release, with its date and its definition of “arrival” attached, is worth more than the same number repeated by an agency. Occupancy and nightly rates are a harder case still, because no public body collects them for privately owned condominium units. Where a page presents them by beach, they have come either from one operator’s book or from an estimate, and the two look identical once they are in a table.
The result is that “8 to 10% gross yields are the new normal” gets asserted rather than shown, on this site as elsewhere, and the buyer who acts on it has bought a number nobody stands behind.
The one claim that can be tested, and it is wrong
The strongest version of the tourism argument runs like this: small units let best, small units are scarce in the new-build supply, therefore rates on them will rise. The scarcity half of that is a claim about the price lists, and the price lists are on file here.
Across the schemes recorded against Bang Tao, Layan and Surin, MORE Group’s records hold 6,598 priced apartment units. Of those, 5,321, or 80.6%, are smaller than 80 square metres, and 4,578, or 69.4%, are smaller than 60. Units of 80 square metres and above are 1,277 of the 6,598, which is 19.4%.
That is the opposite of scarcity. The claim in circulation, that fewer than 9% of available units in these corridors are under 80 square metres, is wrong by roughly nine times, and the argument built on it does not stand: small units are not the rare part of this market, they are four fifths of it.
Which matters practically rather than academically. If you are buying a compact one-bedroom in the Bang Tao corridor for the nightly market, you are buying into the most competed format in the most competed corridor on the island, not into a shortage. That does not make it a bad purchase. It does mean the case for it has to be made on the specific building, its letting permissions and its manager, rather than on a supply story.
What the supply actually looks like
| Bang Tao, Layan and Surin | Priced apartment units | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under 60 sqm | 4,578 | 69.4% |
| 60 to 79 sqm | 743 | 11.3% |
| 80 sqm and above | 1,277 | 19.4% |
| Total | 6,598 | 100% |
The corridor’s median priced apartment is 46 square metres at 161,000 THB per square metre. That is the market: compact stock, at the island’s second-highest rate per metre after Patong, in the deepest and most competitive corridor Phuket has.
How to use tourism data properly
Arrivals are a demand signal for the island. They are not a forecast for your unit, and the distance between the two is where money is lost.
Three steps make the data useful rather than decorative. Take the arrivals figure from the primary release rather than from a broker’s summary, and note what it counts. Then ignore the island average and ask the operator for twelve months of statements from a comparable unit in the same building, month by month, because the average conceals both the season and the difference between a well-run unit and a badly run one. Then check whether the building may legally take that business at all: the Hotel Act B.E. 2547 (2004) makes any stay under 30 days hotel business unless the building is licensed, and the co-owner regulations can bar short lets whatever the licence position.
A unit that works on both a nightly and a 30-day-plus basis is insulated against the third of those going the wrong way, which is the practical reason to prefer one. See the short-term rental licensing update before treating any daily-rental yield as bankable, and the Phuket rental yield guide for the arithmetic itself.
Risk Checklist for Using Tourism Data
| Risk | Better underwriting |
|---|---|
| A figure with no release behind it | Take arrivals from the TAT or Ministry publication, with its date |
| Peak-quarter bias | Annualise across shoulder and low season, never from one quarter |
| Occupancy quoted by area | Occupancy is a building-level number; the area version is an average of things that are not comparable |
| Gross-yield confusion | Deduct management, platform commission, cleaning, maintenance, the reserve and vacancy |
| Legal channel risk | Hotel licence and co-owner regulations, checked separately and in writing |
| Source-market concentration | Stress-test the model if any one source market slows |
| A supply story | Check it against the actual unit counts, as this page does above |
Frequently Asked Questions
Nobody can show you that they are. Occupancy and achieved nightly rates for privately owned condominium units are not collected by any public body in Thailand, so figures quoted by area are either one operator's book or an estimate. What can be established for a specific unit is its own record: ask the manager for twelve months of owner statements on a comparable apartment in the same building, split by month, and build the number from those.
There is no published answer, and tables that give one by beach are not measurements. What is on record is the supply, which shapes the competition: the Bang Tao, Layan and Surin corridor holds 6,598 priced apartment units, 80.6% of them under 80 square metres, at a median rate of 161,000 THB per square metre. That is the deepest and most competitive short-stay corridor on the island, which cuts both ways for an owner.
That is a forecast, and this page does not make forecasts. What is structural rather than predicted is that Phuket International takes direct long-haul flights while its regional competitors do not, that Airports of Thailand has an expansion programme in hand, and that arrivals concentrated in a small number of source markets carry a policy risk that is felt in nightly rates within a season. Underwrite a purchase so that it survives one of those markets slowing, rather than on the assumption that none of them will.
Olga
Phuket Real Estate Experts
The MORE Group team has helped 500+ European and American buyers purchase property in Thailand. We provide legal support, 0% commission, and on-the-ground expertise with 8 years in the Phuket market.
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